The 30.5% Invariant: Why Prediction Markets Underprice Iran’s Tail Risk
Code does not lie, but it does hide. Today, the hiding place is a Polymarket...
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| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$65,080 | +0.50% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$1,945.24 | +1.56% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$76.15 | +0.95% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$574.4 | +0.16% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.1 | -0.58% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0722 | -1.35% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.1594 | -3.34% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$6.6 | -1.54% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$0.7963 | -3.14% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$8.65 | +0.45% |
Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward halving event
92 million ARB released
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Team and early investor shares released
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Bitcoin Season
| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$65,080 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,945.24 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$76.15 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$574.4 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.1 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0722 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1594 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.6 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.7963 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.65 |